Friday, April 06, 2007

cost of not living here is higher than cost of living here

email me at jyun@pa-investors.com if you have questions about this title for upcoming book

real estate squeeze

we may be about to see an ugly real estate squeeze in the mid peninsula. not downwards, but upwards. experts have called a 50% price decline, 30% decline, 10% decline, flat, 10% gain. no one has predicted a >50% gain, which means this is the most likely scenario.

the inventory is miniscule. every smart person i know is waiting for prices to fall. which means the exact opposite is going to occur.

london has doubled in 6 months despite calls for pricing collapse. NY boom has started. there are signs everywhere that bay area prices are poised to make a historic run upwards.

headlines are focused on bubbles and subprimes, etc.

stealth tech boom

2005 was 1995. 2006 was 1996. 2007 so far feels like 1997. we're in the middle of a tech boom. signs are everywhere. you can feel it in coffee houses and bbqs. you can see it in traffic. commercial real estate is tight.

the boom should be bigger and more durable than the last given experienced entrereneurs, memories of bust, and real business models. there are jobs everywhere.

the headlines remain negative to silent. we're in year 3 of a silent tech boom.